Three decades of climate summits

Since 1992, when the United Nations recognized climate change as an international emergency, there have been 26 Conferences of the Parties, known as COPs. Some of them are emblematic, such as the Kyoto Protocol - number 3 - in 1997, in which the signatory countries undertook to monitor their efforts to reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. Or the most recent, in 2015, Paris Agreements - the twenty-first - where the objective of limiting the global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius, in relation to the pre-industrial era, is stipulated. And even a more demanding goal: a rise of 1.5 degrees. The next multilateral meeting, COP26 - in November in Glasgow - must take stock of the first global review of the progress towards energy neutrality recorded in the French capital. And review the global architecture designed to avoid climate catastrophe, the greatest risk hanging over humanity; in full countdown to save the planet, in code red, warns the UN.
By Ignacio Domingo

Six years after the Paris Agreements - and with a delay exercise due to the Covid-19 epidemic - the quasi-universal treaty to stabilize global warming will get a dramatic insufficient at its Glasgow meeting, the first review of its 197 signatory countries on the progress of their NDC's (Nationally Determined Contributions). The sustainable agendas that each country then undertook for their non-binding commitments. At a crucial moment. Because the latest United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - from last August - warns that humanity is in code red. Due to the "rapid and intense propagation" of an "irreversible" catastrophe in certain latitudes of the planet. As noted by the scientific community, which is observing changes in the Earth's climate system as a whole. In its atmosphere, oceans, glaciers and in its terrestrial space. "Many turn out to be unpredictable, some will increase their threat level, and others - such as rising sea levels - are "inevitable." Over centuries and even millennia. But there are still glimmers of light at the end of the tunnel. If "sustainable reductions" of CO2 emissions are certified. Until the temperature stabilizes "in 20 to 30 years".

The history of multilateral climate treaties has revolved around a fragile balance between alarms about the health of the planet and its shock treatment: inclusive and green economies, capable of generating prosperity, through the establishment of an energy-neutral model. Specified in the NDC's of each country.

The UN is the institution in charge of chiseling the regulatory armor and the road map to avoid meteorological catastrophe. Since 1992, at the Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) summit, when it denounced the seriousness of a phenomenon accelerated by human activity, several milestones and agreements have fed into the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which came into existence in 1994.

1995. COP1 was held in Berlin. Hosted by then German Environment Minister, Angela Merkel. The leaders of the signatory countries of the UNFCCC attended. The White House opposed legally binding targets and timetables, although it was in favor of negotiation agreements to limit greenhouse gases. From the German capital came the so-called Berlin Mandate, the seed of the subsequent Kyoto Protocol, criticized by activists for not containing forceful or immediate actions.

1997. Kyoto COP3. The conference adopts the Kyoto Protocol. First attempt to make the mandate that countries reduce CO2 emissions by an average of 5% against 1990 binding, and to establish a system for monitoring national progress. In vain. China and India, two of the four most polluting areas, led the dissonant voice of the developing countries, which they justified on the basis of their industrialization needs. As well as their rejection of the creation of the carbon market to trade emissions units through the cap and trade system and encourage sustainability. The Clinton Administration, which signed the document, failed to get it subsequently ratified by Congress.

2001. The UN engine room returns to Germany. To Bonn. In one of the most fragile moments. With the multilateral dialogue breaking down since November 2000 and the withdrawal of the U.S. from the talks, the U.S. is now in the midst of an economic crisis. MARCH 2001 The negotiations, in July in the former West German capital, reached remarkable agreements, however, on the application of green technology, emissions trading, and reductions in coal extraction. In October, the rules for achieving the Kyoto Protocol's targets were set, paving the way for its entry into force.

2005. Montreal (Canada). The eleventh COP makes ratification official. By bringing together enough signatory countries to reach the Kyoto target: a reduction of at least 55% of global emissions. Although without the two main polluting markets: U.S. and China. But with the EU pledging to cut its pre-1990 pollution levels by 8%, Japan by 5%, and Russia promising to return to its base year pollution level.

2007. Bali (Indonesia). Attempt to sign a Kyoto 2.0; but Washington is once again on the fence: it refuses to allow the industrialized powers to cut emissions with specific targets without a tacit and similar pact from the emerging countries, and excludes itself from the Bali Action Plan, which takes on the challenge of designing a new climate agreement for 2009.

This year marks the beginning of a decade of ups and downs. The September UN meeting resulted in commitments from Hu Jintao (China) to cut emissions by "a remarkable margin" by 2020, from Japan (Yukio Hatayama) by 25%, and from the USA (Barack Obama),to act in a "determined manner". But COP15, two months later in Copenhagen, ended with a mere "taking note" by the countries and the de facto failure of the Kyoto Protocol. Despite the fact that science warns of temperature rises of between 3.5 and 7.4 degrees Celsius in the next century. The disappointment of the Danish capital is followed by a halo of euphoria in Cancun (Mexico 2010), while NASA certifies the hottest decade in history. 80 nations - among them China, India and the USA - join the EU in its desire to implement efficient mechanisms to bring the global temperature increase below 2 degrees Celsius. And they set up the Green Climate Fund with $100 billion to assist developing countries. Although by the end of 2019 these resources barely came to $3 billion.

In 2011 (Durban, South Africa), China and the U.S. again disagreed. The U.S. is confronting Europe, which is drafting a proposal that, unlike the Kyoto Protocol, which is about to expire, obligates industrialized and emerging powers to comply with the targets. A year later, in Doha, Kyoto was extended until 2020, under a minimum consensus among nations that together emit 15% of CO2. Canada withdraws; Japan and Russia say they will not accept new commitments. The Doha Amendment, with financial aid to developing countries, was born out of the meeting. The 2013 COP19 in Warsaw created a new rift. With the G-77 demanding a mechanism for damages to the nations most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, which is opposed by high-income economies.

It is in this tense climate that the Paris meeting takes place, where the most important climate pact is being forged. By the number of accessions and the requirement that all of them cut emissions. But without requiring them to have goals or instruments. It becomes effective in November 2016. Barely a year later, Donald Trump abandons it on the grounds that it imposes "draconian economic and financial burdens" on the world's largest GDP.

2018. Katowice. COP24 returns to Poland. In the midst of the devastating consequences that the IPCC report outlines for the future. With a profusion of heat waves and inclement weather if the planet exceeds 1.5 degrees. The summit only leaves formulas to verify the progress of each country and develop the Paris Agreements. And it postpones the rules of the carbon market, which moves the following year to Madrid.

COP25, another missed opportunity. The UN is officially calling on countries to cut CO2 emissions by 45% by 2030 and to achieve energy neutrality by 2050. But the negotiating pulse of Madrid concludes once again without rules on the purchase and sale of credits for the capture or emission of polluting gases and with nations reluctant to increase their cuts. Glasgow is back in the game. Although with the recurrent reasonable doubts as to whether the cards will align with the interests of the planet.

Three decades after the first climate summit in Rio de Janeiro on June 3, 30 years ago, it is clear that the results of the global commitments made are disappointing. Although the European Union has made a firm commitment, it accounts for only 8% of global CO2 emissions. Despite this, the various summits have helped to position the fight against greenhouse gas emissions among the priorities of governments and companies, encouraging a trend in the fight against climate change that is now irreversible.

Three decades after the first climate summit in Rio de Janeiro on June 3, 30 years ago, it is clear that the results of the global commitments made are disappointing. Although the European Union has made a firm commitment, it accounts for only 8% of global CO2 emissions. Despite this, the various summits have helped to position the fight against greenhouse gas emissions among the priorities of governments and companies, encouraging a trend in the fight against climate change that is now irreversible.

Ignacio Domingo has spent most of his 30 years of professional practice analyzing geopolitical, international economic and capital market issues in Expansión and collaborating with media channels such as El Confidencial, Capital, Estrategias de Inversión and El Diario.es, among others. He received the award as a first runner-up for the Citigroup Award, which recognizes the best annual economic reporting.